A Data Science Story about UFO Sightings in the USA

The number of UFO sightings per year in the US has grown by 1200% between the years 1973 and 2022.

A Data Science Story about UFO sightings in the USA

There actually is a National UFO Reporting Center that has logged over 117,000 UFO sightings since 1973.

A Data Science Story about UFO sightings in the USA

The states with the highest number of reported UFO sightings are California, Florida, and Washington.

Introduction

UFOs, or unidentified flying objects, are objects or lights that appear in the sky and cannot be easily explained by conventional means. These sightings have been reported for centuries, with some of the earliest recorded sightings dating back to ancient civilizations. However, the term "UFO" was not coined until the 1950s, when the US Air Force began investigating reports of flying saucers and other strange phenomena.

There are many different theories behind UFOs, ranging from the idea that they are advanced technology developed by other civilizations to the belief that they are secret government projects. Some people also believe that UFO sightings are evidence of extraterrestrial life, while others argue that they are simply misidentified natural phenomena or man-made objects.

Despite the lack of concrete evidence, UFOs continue to be a topic of interest for many people around the world. This is partly due to the fact that numerous sightings are reported by reliable witnesses, such as pilots and military personnel. Additionally, some people are drawn to the idea of extraterrestrial life and the possibility of contact with other civilizations. Over the years, there have been dozens, and perhaps even hundreds, of stories and UFO sightings that have become worldwide phenomena, inspiring movies and turning those involved into international icons. Some of the most popular stories could be found below:

A group of school children in Zimbabwe reported seeing a UFO and alien beings during recess in 1994.

The Zimbabwe Student Story

One of the most famous UFO stories, revolving on a UFO crash that happened in New Mexico, 1947.

The Roswell Crash, 1947

One of thr most famous figures in the world of UFOs, where he claims he worked on UFO vehicles at Area 51.

The Bob Lazar Story

The Pentagon released declassified files of UFO sightings by military personnel, revealing encounters with unidentified flying objects that could not be explained.

Pentagon Files

The Phoenix Lights incident was a mass sighting of a V-shaped formation of lights in the sky over Arizona and Nevada on March 13, 1997, which remains unexplained.

The Phoenix Lights

The Rendlesham Forest incident was a series of reported sightings of unexplained lights and a triangular-shaped craft in December 1980 by US military personnel stationed at RAF Woodbridge in Suffolk, England.

Rendelsham Forest



Regardless of the validity of these stories, one cannot deny the sheer intrigue and excitement they bring to the table. The possibility of otherworldly beings visiting our planet has captured the imagination of people from all walks of life, encouraging us to question the very fabric of our reality and search for meaning beyond our limited understanding. From stories of alien abductions to encounters with otherworldly crafts, the UFO conversation has truly expanded our horizons and challenged our perceptions of what is possible.

So, whether you're a skeptic or a believer, there's no denying that the UFO conversation is a fascinating and endlessly captivating topic that continues to inspire us to dream big and imagine beyond the confines of our current knowledge. After all, in a universe as vast and mysterious as ours, who knows what incredible discoveries await us in the vast expanse of space?



GIF: Growth of UFO Sightings in the US every 10 years since 1975. Data Source: National UFO Reporting Center Online Database. This is our work, code in Github repo.


The number of reported UFO sightings in the US has seen a significant increase since the 1970s, across all states. This project aims to analyze this growth trend and identify potential reasons behind it. The data used in this analysis is sourced from the National UFO Reporting Center, covering daily national sightings from 1973 to 2022. As a quick disclaimer, this project and its team members are not attempting to promote any theories about UFOs, including their origins, political implications, and so on. The analysis solely focuses on the sightings and what factors could be driving their numbers.

THE STORY

Embark on an extraordinary journey with four Georgetown University students as they delve into the realm of UFO sightings across the United States. Ever since they were young, these students have always been fascinated by UFOs, aliens, and extraterrestrial life. That being said, they have always dreamt of seeing a UFO in front of them, which prompted them to use their Data Science skills to analyze UFO related data. By visualizing this data, they can increase their chances of actually seeing one!

The Data

This dataset was collected from the National UFO Reporting Center.

Table 1: National UFO Reporting Center Data Table

About the Data

Brief Information about the Key columns in the dataset

Date

Sighting date reported (1973-2023). Data for 2023 was excluded as the year is still midway through.

Time

Specific time of sighting (by hour and minute).

City

US city of reported sighting.

State

US state of reported sighting.

Shape

Shape of observed UFO.

Duration

Duration of reported sighting. This variable was feature engineered from the "Time" variable.

Summary

A short description of the sighting given by the observer.

Images

A binary variable (Yes/No) describing whether the observer submitted an image of the reported sighting.

Temporal Analysis

Figure 1: Yearly UFO Sightings in the US. Data Source: National UFO Reporting Center Online Database.

Figure 1 shows the temporal trend of reported sightings of unidentified flying objects (UFOs) from 1973-2022. The graph shows that there was a steady rate of UFO sightings between 1973 and 1996, numbering in the hundreds annually. But starting in 1997, there was a sharp rise in the number of sightings that continued every year until it peaked in 2014 when there were close to 8000 sightings reported.

After reaching this peak, there was a decline in sightings for three straight years until 2017 (see this article for more information), at which point there was a rise in sightings once more. This phenomenon suggests that the graph may have two key inflection points: 1996–1997 and 2017–2018. It would be fascinating to find out if these inflection points hint at any underlying causes that may have influenced the shift in UFO sighting trends.

Figure 1 as a whole demonstrates a distinct temporal pattern in the quantity of reported UFO encounters, and these tendencies may call for further examination to ascertain their potential explanations.



Figure 2: Stream graph depicting Yearly Number of UFO Sightings in the US from 1973 to 2022 for Top 20 States. Data Source: National UFO Reporting Center Online Database.


Figure 2 provides a thorough representation of the annual number of UFO encounters in every state in the US. From it, we may see patterns and trends that are not obvious in Figure 1. Two primary findings are made once Figure 2 is analyzed.

The first finding is that, since 1996, there has been a consistent pattern throughout all states, with an upward and downward trend in sightings. This suggests that there may be a set of common reasons driving the rise of UFO sightings across the United States, possibly connected to technological advancements or other sociological or environmental factors that influence how individuals perceive and record UFO encounters.

The second finding is that the highest annual number of sightings regularly came from California, Florida, and Texas. This conclusion begs the question of whether these states are more likely to experience UFO sightings or whether they have superior reporting mechanisms that encourage more people to do so.

Figure 2's comprehensive examination of state-by-state annual trends in UFO sightings allows for a greater comprehension of the trends and patterns seen in Figure 1 overall. To fully comprehend the underlying causes of these patterns and trends in UFO encounters, more research may be required.

A potential cause for such an exponential growth in UFO sightings in the year 2000 is explained in the "Social" section.

Note: This is our innovative visualization, as it combines the conventional line plots with area charts and adds an artistic flair to the traditional line plot. This technique provides a unique and intuitive way to represent the data, and is more visually appealing compared to a basic and common multiple line chart. Additionally, the thickness of the "streams" corresponds to the relative magnitude of the values, making it easier to understand the data. Not only does it look great, but it also effectively communicates the trends in the data to the audience. Moreover, the streamgraph can also be viewed in conjunction with the social media/tech graph because of the similar timelines being investigated. In 1996, UFO sightings take off exponentially, along with internet usage. Moreover, the 20 states visualized in this graph follow a very similar trend in UFO sightings throughout 1973-2022. Therefore, the consistency in the trend of these states is a novel finding, as previous studies have shown variations in UFO sighting patterns across states when all years are aggregated. This could potentially suggest a common underlying factor, such as cultural or societal influences, that could be further investigated in future studies.

Figure 3: Total Number of UFO sightings per hour of the day. Data Source: National UFO Reporting Center Online Database.


Firstly, it may be easier to spot strange lights or objects in the sky during darker hours due to fewer distractions and more contrast between the sky and any potential UFO, and some sightings reportedly involve light-emitting objects that are easier to see at night.

Secondly, individuals may be more likely to be outside during evening and overnight hours when it's cooler and cozier, increasing the possibility of spotting strange objects that could be mistaken for UFOs.

Lastly, psychological and cultural factors may influence the time of day when UFO encounters occur, as individuals may feel a greater sense of mystery or interest when seeing strange objects in the night sky.

Overall, Figure 3 provides insight into the temporal patterns of UFO sightings, and the potential factors that may contribute to these patterns. Further research may be needed to understand the underlying causes of these trends and patterns, and to determine if there are additional factors that influence when and where UFO sightings occur.

Geospatial Analysis

Figure 1: Total Number of UFO Sightings in the US by Region and State. Data Source: National UFO Reporting Center Online Database.



Figure 2 (left): Total Number of UFO Sightings (1973-2022) in the US by State. Figure 3 (right): UFO Encounter Rate per State and Population (1973-2022). Data Source: National UFO Reporting Center Online Database.

The distribution of UFO sightings across the US states varies depending on the analysis performed. Initially, we counted the total number of UFO sightings reported in each state from 1973 to 2022. According to this analysis, which is visualized in Figures 1 and 2, California accounted for around 25% of the total sightings reported and was followed by Florida and Texas. However, this observation may be biased as it does not take into account factors such as the population and the area of each state.

To address this bias, we calculated the total sightings per capita for every state for each decade from the 1970s to the 2020s. We summed the total sightings reported for each state in every decade and divided the result by the population density of those states. The resulting analysis, depicted in Figure 3, showed a different picture. The states with the highest per capita sightings were Alaska, Montana, and New Mexico, while the eastern states of the US had lower numbers of sightings. This indicates that the previously observed bias was influenced by the population density of the states.

Overall, the distribution of UFO sightings across the US states is not uniform and is influenced by various factors. By considering per capita sightings, we were able to gain a better understanding of the distribution of UFO sightings and eliminate potential biases caused by state population densities. However, saying that there is a greater chance of observing a UFO in Alaska compared to California cannot be said confidently as the per capita number might be too high due to such a lower number of people in that state.


Figure 4: Granular Distribution of UFO Sightings in the US (1973-2022)


The above map displays reported UFO sightings in the United States, using markers to indicate the location of each sighting, and allowing for zooming in to view more specific details. The markers are grouped, enabling visualization of the general density of sightings in various regions of the country.

Figures 1, 2, and 3 provide a state-centric analysis by showing the number of UFO sightings in each state. However, Figure 4 provides more detailed information by revealing the cities and counties with the highest number of sightings. For instance, in California, Los Angeles has the highest number of sightings (10491), and upon closer inspection, West Hollywood appears to be the area with the most sightings.

This figure enables a deeper exploration of the possible reasons behind the number of sightings, as a city-based analysis can be conducted to identify contributing factors.

Weather Analysis

Figure 1: Drill-down barplot depicting Total Number of UFO Sightings in the United States by Weather Type (1973-2022). Click on the "Unclear" bar to obtain a "drill-down" of the number of sightings for different inclement weather conditions! Data Source: National UFO Reporting Center Online Database and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The NUFORC dataset was merged with inclement weather data collected at the daily and city level from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration API. The aim was to compare the distribution of reported UFO sightings during clear versus adverse weather conditions across the United States from 1973-2022. By clicking on the "Unclear" bar, one can view an aggregated view of the merged data for the top 5 most commonly occurring inclement weather conditions, which include windy, foggy, dusty, hazy, and rainy (in ascending order).

The most interesting aspect of this plot is that when a city faces high winds during a day, fewest number of UFOs are spotted across 1973-2022, indicating that windy conditions are probably not conducive for UFOs to fly in. Regardless of what the UFO is and where it originates from, the fact that it avoids windy weather is a strong argument that these objects might be real and have certain flight mechanisms that are impacted by wind.

The argument that people are not outside when it's windy is refuted by the fact that the most UFO sightings occur when the weather is rainy, which is also a weather condition in which people tend to stay indoors.

Figure 2: Linked View Depicting the Number of Sightings during days with Inclement Weather for the Top 10 Cities with Highest UFO Sightings Count. Data Source: National UFO Reporting Center Online Database and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


Figure 2 illustrates the number of UFO sightings, from 1973 to 2022, in the United States for the top 10 cities, which have highest UFO sightings count, when these cities experienced inclement weather on a day. This is a linked view, which suggests that clicking a cell on the heatmap will update the barplot with the respective City and Weather Condition. Five types of weather descriptors were analyzed and it was found that, despite inclement weather on a day, Chicago, IL, reported, on average, the maximum number of sightings out of all the 10 cities.

It is also important to note that the findings in that figure are in accordance with the findings of Figure 1. To elaborate , if the weather was hazy or rainy, the number of sightings across all cities was relatively higher than that of other weather conditions. However, if, during a day, a city experienced high or damaging winds, the number of UFO sightings was the lowest across all cities, so much so that for Seattle, San Diego, Portland, and Los Angeles, there were no reported UFO sightings between the years 1973-2022!